A planned module — conflict and war forecasting
Forecast Studio's next planned module would apply its event-forecasting format to armed conflict and war, building on the Triptych's War-Peace Code. No release date, no probabilities yet.
The next planned panel takes the project into particularly challenging territory: forecasting future conflicts.
It will draw on my research into what I call the War-Peace Code. I'm publishing that research as it develops on Philotica, with interactive graphics that let readers explore the findings themselves:
A future Forecast Studio module is planned to apply its existing event-forecasting format, a probability estimate by a stated deadline in the style of its P1 and P2 pilots, to questions about armed conflict and war.
It would build on my own conflict-modelling research programme: the theory of Evolutionary Determinism, first specified in the Triptych, and its runnable validator, War-Peace Code. That work is already public and under active development on its own project page; a Forecast Studio module built on it is a separate, later step, not something that exists today.
This is a planned module. When there is something real to report, whether a working prototype, a validation result or a date, it will be reported here the same way every other result on this site is, including the negative and inconclusive ones.