Research log
Notes, results, and work in progress. The longer thinking lives here.
Philotica Forecast Studio, public beta
Two statistical forecasting pilots, a personal-forecast workspace, and an experimental link to the χ chaos-screening work — now open for testing.
Addendum II, version 0.2
Resonant Dynamics of Consciousness, revised: the RCRC's synergy condition rebuilt on O-information, temporal coupling κ(t), three routes to calibration failure, and new sections on how consciousness is formed and maintained.
New essay: The Lie a System Tells Itself
The first entry in the new Essays section of Philotheca, on what happens when a System lies to itself rather than to us.
The Name Should Oblige Us
The inclination to violence may be part of our inheritance, but for the first time we have the means not to act on it. A compilation of discussion comments, with the evidence behind the claim about men and organised violence.
A planned module — conflict and war forecasting
Forecast Studio's next planned module would apply its event-forecasting format to armed conflict and war, building on the Triptych's War-Peace Code. No release date, no probabilities yet.
The Clock Loses Its Grip
How strongly a past conflict predicts the next one, within the same pair, has weakened steadily since 1950 — not proof of a cycle, and this one wasn't pre-registered blind.
The Contrast That Survives
A post-1914 contrast in the timing of participant engagement remains statistically significant after removing the five and ten highest years, with limits clarified by the other robustness checks.
What a Forecast Is Worth
On dated predictions, falsification, and the one case that counts.
Opening the log
Why the longer thinking now lives here.